中經(jīng)聯(lián)播3月31日巴黎訊 (馬正江 魏勇）歐洲中央銀行行長克里斯蒂娜·拉加德今日在法國公共電臺(tái)節(jié)目中發(fā)出強(qiáng)烈信號(hào)，直指美國總統(tǒng)特朗普擬于4月3日生效的新一輪汽車關(guān)稅政策將加速歐洲走向“經(jīng)濟(jì)獨(dú)立”。她強(qiáng)調(diào)，這是歐洲必須“掌控自身命運(yùn)”的時(shí)刻，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)只會(huì)導(dǎo)致兩敗俱傷。
拉加德指出，特朗普政府近期針對(duì)汽車、鋼鋁等關(guān)鍵行業(yè)加征25%關(guān)稅的舉措，正迫使歐洲在國防、能源、金融和數(shù)字技術(shù)等領(lǐng)域加速構(gòu)建獨(dú)立性。她將這一轉(zhuǎn)變稱為“歐洲時(shí)刻”，認(rèn)為關(guān)稅爭(zhēng)端已敲響警鐘，激發(fā)歐洲團(tuán)結(jié)與戰(zhàn)略自主的緊迫性。
根據(jù)歐洲央行測(cè)算，若美國關(guān)稅政策落地，歐元區(qū)GDP在第一年可能下降0.3%；若歐盟采取對(duì)等反制措施，降幅將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大至0.5%。拉加德警告，貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端可能推高歐洲通脹，而歐洲央行將保持警惕，堅(jiān)持2%的通脹目標(biāo)。她坦言，“這是一場(chǎng)持久戰(zhàn)”，貨幣政策需靈活應(yīng)對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)變化。
面對(duì)美方施壓，歐盟態(tài)度漸趨強(qiáng)硬。德國總理朔爾茨此前表示愿優(yōu)先談判，但若美方堅(jiān)持加稅，歐盟將“堅(jiān)決回應(yīng)”。歐盟委員會(huì)已擬定針對(duì)260億歐元美國商品的對(duì)等關(guān)稅清單，計(jì)劃4月生效以爭(zhēng)取談判窗口。法國總統(tǒng)馬克龍更直斥美方政策為“經(jīng)濟(jì)自殘”，稱歐盟將捍衛(wèi)利益，不排除升級(jí)反制。
特朗普關(guān)稅已引發(fā)連鎖反應(yīng)。3月27日，歐洲三大汽車巨頭梅賽德斯-奔馳、寶馬、大眾股價(jià)集體下挫，美股通用、福特跌幅超3%。研究機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，若美歐互征25%關(guān)稅，歐盟GDP或萎縮0.4%，美國亦難獨(dú)善其身，經(jīng)濟(jì)或縮水0.17%。
拉加德強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)前局勢(shì)凸顯歐洲需減少對(duì)外依賴，尤其是在關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。然而，短期陣痛難以避免：跨大西洋汽車供應(yīng)鏈面臨斷裂風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，鋼鋁產(chǎn)能過剩或重演十年前油價(jià)崩盤危機(jī)。分析指出，若貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)持續(xù)，歐洲央行可能加快降息步伐以穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)，但結(jié)構(gòu)性改革仍是長期破局關(guān)鍵。
Lagarde Warns: "No Winners in Trade War," Trump Tariffs Spur Europe’s Push for "Economic Independence"
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sent a strong signal during an interview on France Inter radio today, warning that the new U.S. automotive tariffs set to take effect on April 3 under President Donald Trump will accelerate Europe’s march toward "economic independence." She stressed that this is a moment for Europe to "take control of our own destiny," adding that a trade war would only result in mutual damage.
Lagarde noted that the Trump administration’s recent imposition of 25% tariffs on critical industries, including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, is forcing Europe to rapidly build self-reliance in defense, energy, finance, and digital technology. She described this shift as a "European moment," arguing that the tariff dispute has served as a wake-up call, heightening the urgency for European unity and strategic autonomy.
According to ECB estimates, the Eurozone’s GDP could decline by 0.3% in the first year if U.S. tariffs are implemented. Should the EU retaliate with equivalent measures, the contraction could widen to 0.5%. Lagarde cautioned that trade tensions risk fueling inflation in Europe, though the ECB remains committed to its 2% target. "This will be a protracted battle," she acknowledged, emphasizing that monetary policy must stay flexible and data-dependent.
Facing U.S. pressure, the EU has adopted an increasingly resolute stance. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously expressed openness to prioritizing negotiations but warned that the bloc would "respond decisively" if Washington insists on tariffs. The European Commission has drafted retaliatory tariffs targeting €26 billion of U.S. goods, slated for April implementation to create negotiating leverage. French President Emmanuel Macron condemned U.S. policies as "economic self-harm," vowing that the EU will defend its interests and escalate countermeasures if necessary.
Trump’s tariffs have already triggered market turmoil. On March 27, shares of Europe’s automotive giants—Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen—fell sharply, while U.S. automakers General Motors and Ford dropped over 3%. Research institutes predict that a 25% tariff exchange between the U.S. and EU could shrink the EU’s GDP by 0.4%, with the U.S. economy also contracting by 0.17%.
Lagarde underscored that the current crisis highlights Europe’s need to reduce external dependencies, particularly in strategic industries. However, short-term pain is inevitable: transatlantic automotive supply chains face fracture risks, while steel and aluminum overcapacity could mirror the oil price collapse crisis a decade ago. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions may push the ECB to accelerate interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy, but structural reforms remain key to long-term resilience.
